View: Who holds key to West Bengal?

Posted On Apr 21, 2021 By admin With Comments Off

The huge activity that finally began yesterday in West Bengal is unlikely to end with the results on May 2. Whatever may be the outcome, the tics of this recreation are likely to be felt across the Bay of Bengal coastline for the next five years.India’s eastern seaboard largely eluded the Modi juggernaut in 2014. The state-level gatherings in West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu managed to keep the BJP at bay for another five years. However, during the 2019 polls, the BJP breached Bengal and Odisha as the main opposition party, procreated serious inroads in Telangana, and waited to emerge as a serious alternative in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. For BJP then, this election is not merely limited to a country, but are built on the amplifications in newly acquired territories.How did the BJP in 2019 come close to usurping the position of the Trinamool Congress( TMC) in West Bengal? The TMC’s attempt to dominate the panchayat holding elections in 2018, in which a large number of uncontested accommodates were triumphed by the party, reportedly deploying intimidation and violent tactics riled a substantial segment of urban Bengal’s electorate. And overnight, political reporters informed us, voters committed to the Left Front’s ideology turned to the saffron party. Chup chap, kamal chhap[ mutely vote for lotus] became the rallying cry. 8173252 4The data on vote share of various parties and party identification in Lokniti-CSDS examines have pointed out that the palpable flood in the favour of the BJP was in making for a long time. The Lokniti-CSDS in all its post-poll examines asks respondents whether the government has or their family are a traditional advocate of any party. This question is a close proxy to what political scientists refer to as party identification. Party identifiers are voters little swayed by short-term considerations and are the mainstay on which parties mobilise and add brand-new voters. In any referendum, there is a substantially large fraction of the electorate which does not identify with any party, but they do vote for one defendant or the other. Even party identifiers more switch elects in certain conditions. Therefore, while party identification is highly correlated with vote choice, it does not follow a one-on-one relationship.In a cover of a decade, the percentage of West Bengal electorate that does not identify with any party almost double-dealing — from 35% in 2011 to 68% in 2019. Left Front voters didn’t turn saffron overnight; they first became non-committal, and are now ready to be mobilised by an alternative, which in Bengal’s case is another ideological extreme — the BJP. The defendant identification with the Left rejected from 32% to 8% in this period. Thus , not only the electoral strong of the Left Front reduced considerably, but also the dwindle of its traditional subsidize base, caused a vacuum-clean for an alternative force to emerge. The BJP previously had its noses on the district, investing huge resources in the last 5-6 years completed in the infinite vacated by the Left Front.How did this happen? Mamata Banerjee’s deep desire to decimate the Left and her attempts to appropriate the Front’s support base( Muslims and poverty-stricken) though fetch her short-term benefits, but too started the criteria for the BJP’s rise in Bengal. The TMC government manufactured every effort to wean apart the Left’s base — through welfare strategies, co-opting the Left’s machine in rural Bengal and the syndicate operating in the Greater Kolkata region, and using numerous name entreaties( caste, religion, neighborhood and religion) to mobilise voters. This helped the TMC to increase its vote and sit share in the last two polls. But the crannies that were appearing in the party’s social base came disguised under the thumping wins of 2016 and 2018. Mamata Banerjee was caught off guard during the 2019 ballot and must be given to set herculean efforts mid-campaign to stop the BJP juggernaut. It was the final phase in the South Bengal region in which TMC prevailed all nine parliamentary constituencies to race past the BJP’s share in the district. In 2021, the TMC faces an uphill task as the charge of rent-seeking among TMC’s neighbourhood corps in welfare planneds, inefficient management of Amphan cyclone relief money, and charges of viciou intimidation “ve created” a feeling of severe anti-incumbency. Furthermore, the defections of foremost commanders from the Trinamool to the BJP led to an impression that the BJP has expedition impetu in its favour.The prime minister and his party are leaving no stone unturned to win over a substantial segment of these non-committed voters. Analysis suggests that the non-identifiers are more likely to be influenced by the campaign, more likely to make a decision on whom to vote close to the polling day and are more likely to side with the supposed winner. The key question remains: does the BJP have organisational machine to not only increase turnout among non-committal voters, but too assure them of safety and security post-verdict? If yes, then the electoral emblazon of India’s eastern seaboard is likely to change from hereon.Rahul Verma is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi